愛墾網特寫·新冠肺炎:人文景觀

新冠肺炎在2020年1月間,還是叫“武漢肺炎”;全球的眼光聚焦於中國,特別是武漢。

兩個多月後,我們知道,它正威脅著地球表面上每一個人。這不是中國人的事,是每一個人類的事。


到今天,全球確證人數已接130萬人,從120萬人到130萬人,只是一天的事;不幸罹難者已逾7萬,從6萬到7萬,還不到48個小時。有的國家,在嚴酷的時刻,每小時有55人離開。

專家說,這還不是最壞的情況;沒有最壞,只有更壞。


被病毒盯上的,不只是生活條件一般的百姓,也包括皇儲、首相、球星與奧斯卡影帝等非貴即富。甚至已有著名演員過世。

最令人戰栗的是,專家透露,疫苗研發工作暫時還沒有任何成果。換句話說,暫無救藥。


在這人類生命受到挑戰的艱辛時刻,不忘企業社會責任而有能力的企業,開始分擔身為地球一份子的責任。以自己的形式,投進“抗疫戰鬥”。

其中,運動品牌New Balance盡管因爲賽事停辦而蒙受重創,毅然把座落於美國麻省的製鞋工廠,改為目前迫切需要的口罩。其口號令人動顏:Made shoes yesterday. Making masks today(見上圖)。體育界龍頭品牌Nike,也捐出了超過1,500萬美金作為援助。



另一方面,全球约三分之一國家鎖國封城,商業如零售及時尚領域處於停頓狀態.雖然如此,跨國奢侈品集團LVMH 旗下Perfumes & Cosmetics(見上圖)暫時停止生產香水,全面改為酒精消毒液生産线,免费提供给法國各地公立醫療單位。


GUCCI承諾捐出110萬個口罩以及5.5萬件防護衣;CHANEL及BURBERRY也投入口罩生産行列。意大利Zegna集團、美國的Ralph Lauren及ST. JOHN等名牌,為受疫情影響地區提供援助及撥款。



時尚刊物《Vogue》則與美國時裝設計師協會(CFDA)聯手發起名為“A Common Thread”(見上圖)的抗疫基金。

這種暫時擱下自家經濟困難,發揮能力範圍內和大家一起抗疫,是一道美麗的人文景觀。(愛墾網編輯部 公益報導)

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Comment by 馬來西亞微電影實驗室 Micro Movie Lab on May 24, 2020 at 9:36am

疫後振興·國内遊契會
HO WAH FOON:New tourism trend to emerge post Covid-19

(A Quiet Kota Kinabalu,Picture by www.iconada.tv


IN the past 22 years operating China-Malaysia tours, businessman Datuk Keith Li had always looked forward to the Labour Day holiday for this was one of the “golden” times to bring in many Chinese travellers and big profits.

But for this year, there is no anticipation.

The raging coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic engulfing more than 200 countries globally is forcing life, business, as well as tourism to a standstill.

With country lockdowns seen almost everywhere, most people cannot move from one place to another. Without passengers, leading airlines, including AIRASIA BHD, have to halt operations and are screaming for government help.

Hotels, another function of the tourism industry, are bleeding. Many empty hotels have closed their operations temporarily or for good, and workers have been asked to leave or take no pay leave.

Local hotels are estimated to have incurred total revenue loss of more than RM1.5bil since Malaysia imposed the movement control order in March.

In the local travel and tours segment, 30% to 50% of cash-tight travel companies have closed down while the more established ones are struggling, according to Li.

Sweet attraction: Li says in-bound tourism may start to recover only in October.
Sweet attraction: Li says in-bound tourism may start to recover only in October.

“My business has fallen from near zero in January to zero now. May golden week this year is hopeless for tourism. I have asked all my staff to take no-pay leave until business returns. In-bound tourism might start to recover only in October, ” Li tells StarBizWeek.

“Why October? International tourism is about bilateralism or multi-lateralism. Even if Malaysia is able to lift control soon, other countries may not. This is a global pandemic, not regional, ” the Chinese national explains in a WhatsApp interview.

Due to lingering concerns over safety, most would-be tourists are likely to choose domestic travel and nearby destinations once the pandemic is over.

A recent survey in China, which has wiped out its Covid-19 epidemic in March, showed that more than 90% of respondents would choose domestic tours in their immediate travel plans.

The booking statistics for the May golden holiday provided supporting evidence for the trend, said the survey jointly organised by the China Tourism Academy and Trip.com Group.

The survey report, published in China Youth Daily, was conducted on 15,000 people mostly aged 18 to 45, in nearly 100 cities across mainland China.

Taking cognisance of local tourists’ preference after Covid-19 crisis, China’s travel agencies – in their attempt to stay afloat – have diversified into selling delicacies to live-streaming culture talks that feature history and well-known personalities.

New landscape

Hong Kong Tourism Board (HKTB)’s chairman Y.K Pang sees a new tourism landscape after the pandemic, which has posed unprecedented challenges to industry players and put global tourism to a halt.

After a major HKTB-organised web seminar on April 24, Pang said in a statement: “The tourism landscape will be reshaped. In the post-pandemic world, we will see a shift in preference and behaviour among travellers – the public health conditions of destinations, and the hygiene standards of transportations, hotels and other tourism facilities will become a top priority.

“People will prefer short-haul breaks and shorter itineraries; wellness-themed trips will become a new trend. It is an ideal time for us to review and rethink Hong Kong’s position in the global tourism market.”

Last Friday’s tourism web conference was participated by 1,500 representatives from travel agencies, tourist sites, hotels, airlines, the retail and dining industries, as well as Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions and cruise sectors.

In discussing the future of short-haul tourism, speakers shared that domestic travel will be the major preference shortly after the pandemic. Outbound travel will resume soon after.Regional competition is seen to be fiercer than ever, as the tourism authorities and travel trade of various destinations and countries are now gearing up for intensive promotions.

Raymond Chan, HKTB’s regional director for South-East Asia, believes in the potential of the Muslim travel market.

He shared how HKTB has been stepping up its efforts to grow the Muslim travel segment as part of the recovery plan in South-East Asia.

It is learnt that mainland China is also attaching increasing importance to the Muslim segment to widen its reach.

The tourism seminar also heard that the young and middle-aged groups in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan would be the most eager to travel.

Green tourism and the outdoors will be favoured, while short-haul travel will be preferred due to financial constraints and lack of holiday leave days.

For the mainland Chinese market, which has gradually resumed economic activities, the seminar was informed that the Chinese will become more price-conscious and they will pursue value-for-money holidays.

“After prolonged confinement during the lockdown, most visitors will place greater emphasis on health and nature, ” said the HKTB statement.

When choosing destinations for future trips after the Covid-19 crisis, tourists will favour those that pose low risks to health.

The meeting and incentive market is expected to continue to slow down as many activities have been postponed or will be held online.

It may take a longer time for the long-haul markets to recover as governments are focusing on containing the outbreak within the region.

“A longer time is expected for these markets to recover and outbound travel may resume in the last quarter of this year at the earliest, ” said HKTB.

Within the region, HKTB expects Asian tourists to be the first to visit Hong Kong after the pandemic.

As consumer sentiment is more positive in Canada, France and Germany, outbound travel in these markets is expected to recover at a faster rate.

Vacations to be more expensive

Even though there is expectation that people may start travelling from the third quarter of this year, recovery may be slow.

A recent study by the University of South Florida revealed that 63.8% of travelers will reduce their travel plans in the next 12 months, according to an online report by Tourism Review News.

More than 50% of respondents surveyed by the US university had cancelled their business travel due to the coronavirus.

On the future of tourism, writer Kevin Eagan of Tourism Review News believes that “travelling will become a luxury again”.

“The coronavirus will probably make travelling more expensive and thus also more climate-friendly. Cheap flights at cut-rate prices will soon be the thing of the past. The future of tourism encompasses substantial changes, ” Eagan wrote.

He predicts the tourism industry will shrink by 50% in 2020, and this means a significant loss of jobs and revenue.

“As a result, it may be expected that the flight tickets will cost more, hotels will raise prices - travelling will probably become more expensive when the travel restrictions are lifted.

“The risk of infection with the coronavirus is reducing the available space: keeping a distance between people is expensive. Thus travelling becomes a luxury again, ” Eagan explained.

The immediate future will see empty rows of seats to prevent infection in airplanes and trains.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that passenger numbers could fall by a third, and ticket prices could rise by half, if a “decongestion” were to be implemented.

But ultimately this would be determined by supply and demand, IATA boss Alexandre de Juniac was quoted as telling Tourism Review News.

Hence, future vocations will be expensive as tourists will have to pay more money for the same services. People without money will be left behind in the world of tourism. Now not everyone can fly.

www.thestar.com.my Saturday, 02 May 2020)

Comment by 馬來西亞微電影實驗室 Micro Movie Lab on April 29, 2020 at 11:24pm

CREATIVITY IN THE AGE OF CORONAVIRUS

The outbreak of Covid-19 has shaken the world to its core, leaving the creative industries in an unprecedented situation. We catch up with creatives in quarantine, and explore the different ways that brands and studios are adapting.

Comment by 馬來西亞微電影實驗室 Micro Movie Lab on April 29, 2020 at 10:38pm

Life after Covid-19: Can the show go on for Malaysia's performing a...

KLPac is planning to cut its audience capacity by half once the MCO is lifted. Photo: KLPac

It is no surprise that the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent movement control order (MCO) – now extended until April 28 – imposed by the government has left many casualties in its wake.

With many institutions forced to temporarily put down their shutters, the economic diagnosis is not looking so well for them.

One industry that is utterly devastated by this predicament is the performing arts industry. Indeed, performing arts venues and theatre companies solely rely on rentals, classes and ticket sales for their survival.

With almost no financial aid from the government and entirely dependent on sponsors, or sometimes even dipping into their own bank account, the fate of Malaysian theatre makers and their beloved arts scene does not seem promising.

Major theatre venues like the Kuala Lumpur Performing Arts Centre (KLPac), PenangPac and the Damansara Performing Arts Centre (DPAC) are already gutted by their losses, especially with these venues shut since the start of MCO on March 18.

With 41 shows either postponed or cancelled due to the MCO, KLPac’s total loss projected – from mid-March until October – is estimated at more than RM630,000. PenangPac has lost an estimated RM120,000 (March to June cancellations) and DPAC stands to lose approximately RM250,000 (March/April shows) by the end of this month.

“We are very concerned about our primary revenue streams. Venue rental, ticket sales from productions and Academy courses have all been impacted, ” says Joe Hasham, KLPac’s co-founder and artistic director.

DPAC will implement a social distancing policy and disinfect its premise before and after every show. Photo: DPAC
DPAC will implement a social distancing policy and disinfect its premise before and after every show. Photo: DPAC

Datin Jane Lew Siew Ting, DPAC’s founder, shares theatre veteran Hasham’s sentiments.

“We have zero income in March and April, and probably very little income from May till July as well. This high level of uncertainty makes it hard for most of our clients to plan for the near future. And thus, how we are going to sustain, operationally, will be a huge challenge right now, ” admits Lew.

As the MCO weeks pass, no work is forthcoming. This state of anxiety is prevalent with independent theatre companies too.

There are only so many online theatre shows – DIY and free – that most of these indie companies can sustain.

“The problem is no matter how you restructure, we are still in the middle of waiting. We don’t know what is going to happen. We might have to start from zero again if show cancellations continue, ” says Seng Soo Ming, 39, founder of Seremban-based Pitapat Theatre.

He aims to shift the Pitapat company’s direction, with small-sized touring shows to make ends meet when the storm settles.

Seng Soo Ming says Pitapat Theatre will adapt to smaller-sized shows with potential touring opportunities. Photo: Pitapat Theatre
Seng Soo Ming says Pitapat Theatre will adapt to smaller-sized shows with potential touring opportunities. Photo: Pitapat Theatre

Kelvin Wong, founder of the collective Theatresauce, is hopeful that his company’s upcoming 2020/2021 season can still proceed as planned. Theatresauce's news season is supposed to run between October 2020 and June 2021. An average of RM150,000 is usually spent to hold three mainstage productions, and three showcases for the emerging directors lab.

But the 34-year old theatre lecturer/director sees the lack of funding and private support during the pandemic as a crippling situation.

“Institutions providing grants have pulled out because of the pandemic, which is unfortunate, given that there is no better time to question, challenge and create than right now, ” says Wong.

“This is making us rethink if we should press on with our initial plan, or wait until the following year”.

On March 27, the Inxo Arts Fund 2020, organised by Inxo Arts and Culture (L) Foundation, announced that it was suspending this year’s programme (a total of RM100,000 in grants meant for 10 arts projects).

In a rare spot of positive news, the Cultural Economy Development Agency (Cendana) recently outlined a recovery package to benefit artists and cultural workers in the performing arts, visual art and independent music sectors. The announcement made on April 8 includes a food aid package and the "Create Now Funding Programme", which is an immediate response grant of up to RM1,500 per individual artist/cultural worker and RM3,500 per collective/arts organisation.

'A revamp of Theatresauce’s business model is also imminent – and being in quarantine gets us to think a bit more about business sustainability,' says Kelvin Wong from indie company Theatresauce. Photo: Filepic
'A revamp of Theatresauce’s business model is also imminent – and being in quarantine gets us to think a bit more about business sustainability,' says Kelvin Wong from indie company Theatresauce. Photo: Filepic

On April 14, Jabatan Kebudayaan dan Kesenian Negara (JKKN), or National Department for Culture and Arts, launched an online arts and culture competition called Arts Online @#stayhome.

The bizarrely-timed competition, running till April 22, covers various arts disciplines such as theatre, poetry, classical dance, singing, storytelling and even silat. To encourage signups, JKKN is providing cash prizes (up to RM1,000). This may not be the sort of well-informed financial support needed in the performing arts scene right now but at least, it is a small step in the right direction.

The recovery packages being introduced now are mostly one-time hand-outs. Long-term arts and culture recovery strategies have yet to be introduced by the government.

June Tan, a producer at the Five Arts Centre in KL, says at this point, uncertainty is the biggest factor affecting them.

“Fundamentally our work is very much located in a live event. So the need to be in a space together is still very much our impulse. We can only figure out what Covid-19 and social distancing means to this, and what changes we need to make, in the upcoming months. At this point, our other work – researching, writing, archiving are still ongoing albeit at a slower pace, ” says Tan, 45.

Meanwhile, creative arts bazaar platform Riuh had to postpone its Panggung Riuh event to July 4 and 5, and cancelled its upcoming Riuh Raya event scheduled for next month. This is the first time in three years since it started, that there will not be a festive season Riuh. One edition of Riuh usually hosts a minimum of 60 creative arts brands, and can generate up to RM220,000 in revenue.

Of course, these concerns are not unfounded.

Around the world, governments have stepped in to assist their respective arts and culture industries. In Singapore, S$55mil (RM167.7mil) was recently designated for the arts sector through the country’s Resilience Budget. An additional S$1.6mil (RM4.8mil) was set aside earlier for a capability development grant and a subsidy scheme to reduce rental and associated costs.

Khairi Anwar, the artistic director of Anomalist Production, admits the theatre scene will be in a vulnerable state in the months ahead, and it will take plenty of (creative) rethinking and re-adjusting to keep the arts going. Photo: Filepic
Khairi Anwar, the artistic director of Anomalist Production, admits the theatre scene will be in a vulnerable state in the months ahead, and it will take plenty of (creative) rethinking and re-adjusting to keep the arts going. Photo: Filepic

On March 31, the Arts Council England also rushed out a £160mil (RM863mil) emergency fund to support organisations and individuals in the creative sector affected by the coronavirus. From that amount, £20mil (RM108mil) will be set aside for freelance cultural workers.

On March 23, Germany launched a €50bil (RM236bil) aid package targeted at freelancers, artists and small businesses. The package aims to preserve the country’s artistic and cultural industry.

However, the Malaysian government’s economic stimulus package called Bantuan Prihatin Nasional, while promising to leave nobody behind, seems to have excluded a tailored financial support package for the arts industry.

Easee Gan, a writer, director and co-founder of local theatre group Muka Space, points out that many arts groups are self-funded, and many practitioners are freelancers.

“To produce a show after this may be more difficult, especially since we will need to look for sponsorship. Will there be funding left for arts and culture? With no small projects (theatre workshops, arts teaching sessions) and theatre show income coming in right now, you have to say a lot of independent arts companies will need some form of support or (financial) jumpstart to reopen, ” says Gan, 33.

Gan reveals almost all of Muka Space's projects for 2020 have been written off. Two theatre projects have been cancelled and one postponed until December. As a pet project, Muka Space's publicity campaigns for its first two theatre book publications, written by co-founder Deric Gan, have also hit the skids.

"My brother Deric was supposed to launch two (Chinese) books related to (local) theatre. They are published by Muka Space. The cancellation of Bookfest Malaysia 2020 in KL has left us with no choice but to promote and sell the books online," says Gan.

"In the months ahead, many people in the arts, already known for their ingenuity, stubbornness and resourcefulness, will have to come together to map a way forward. Creativity doesn't just stop (because of a bad situation)," he adds.

Catch-22 situation

One of the last major arts festivals not to be cancelled yet in Malaysia is the Yayasan Sime Darby Arts Festival at KLPac, which is scheduled in August. The fate of the fest hangs in balance and a decision will be made later this month.

Hasham says KLPac have had three rounds of engagement with the Ministry of Tourism, Arts and Culture and a wishlist has been presented to the Government.

The situation could potentially get worse. On April 3, Health DG Datuk Noor Hisham Abdullah did suggest that the Government might continue to ban or discourage mass gatherings for the rest of the year, even after the MCO is lifted.

A live audience is at the very heart of the performing arts. Theatre through digital media cannot replicate this experience.

While the performing arts scene has to stage shows for its very survival, it may also suffer from a loss of footfalls or worse, complete audience absence.

“It will definitely take some time for people to feel safe coming back to the theatre again, ” says Lew, 49.

“After Covid-19 and the MCO is over, we foresee that people will not see theatre and the performing arts as a priority, at least not in the first few weeks or months, ” she adds.

Closed theatres will take months to recover, and admittedly, the masses won’t have shows on their minds.

Panggung Rakyat is a traditional-based series of live events and workshops initiated by Cendana. The cultural agency has launched its arts recovery package focusing on immediate response grants. Photo: Cendana
Panggung Rakyat is a traditional-based series of live events and workshops initiated by Cendana. The cultural agency has launched its arts recovery package focusing on immediate response grants. Photo: Cendana

“People have been in isolation for a month, so their priority will be more personal, such as getting together with the family or regaining economic stability, ” says Khairi Anwar, founder of Shah Alam-based theatre company Anomalist Production.

The extra ringgit, to Khairi, will be used wisely in these difficult times and the performing arts will be viewed as a luxury to most.

“Besides the economy and trade getting disrupted, which would affect our audience’s spending power, it could also affect our sponsors and their capacity to continue supporting us. And that would also have an effect on us and the artists we collaborate with, since the focus will be on ways to pay the bills and a temporary shift from working in art, ” says Tan.

“With no exact timeline of when we can expect things to go back to normal, event planning is on hold, and there is no way to move forward. The reasonable thing to do, at least for us, is to work around it and come up with alternative ways/format, where applicable, to ensure we still reach our objective, to support the creative industry, ” says Marissa Wambeck, deputy manager at Riuh.

Whatever the circumstance, the show must go on. As it stands, no one seems ready to throw in the towel yet. Many have already entered into recovery mode, carefully planning their next move for a post-MCO Malaysia.

“Faridah (Merican) and I have maintained an optimistic view of the performing arts over the past 31 years of our involvement with The Actors Studio, KLPac and PenangPac. We will not allow the Covid-19 episode, as horrific as it is, to dampen our enthusiasm, ” says Hasham, 72.

To regain confidence from the public, theatre and event venues have assured a strict adherence to guidelines set by the Health Ministry once they are allowed to be operational. That means temperatures checks (staff and audience members), sanitising stations and even regular exercises to disinfect the theatres and spaces. Some venues will also cut down their seating capacity.

“Social distancing will remain intact until it is 100% confirmed that all is clear. The number of seats in each of our theatres will, while the initial clearance period is in effect, be cut to 50% capacity. We will be doing everything in our power to make certain that our patrons are safe and secure, ” assures Hasham.

Romantic date nights at theatres might be temporarily ruled out until the Covid-19 storm has cleared.

The Sentul Depot in KL, which is regularly used by crowded Riuh events, will be hard hit by new rules on social distancing. Photo: Filepic
The Sentul Depot in KL, which is regularly used by crowded Riuh events, will be hard hit by new rules on social distancing. Photo: Filepic

“We will enforce distance-seating by having an empty seat between each audience member. Audience numbers at DPAC per show will drop, but these are necessary steps to be taken, ” says Lew.

Christopher Ling, artistic director of local collective theatrethreesixty, says the entire global theatre scene cannot expect things to return to pre-virus normalcy that quickly.

“Residual fear has to be combated with rational measures to protect our theatre community and the audiences we live for. This may mean certain measures put in place by the MCO to remain in place for a few months after it has come to an end, ” says Ling.

Starting from stratch

Khairi, 28, is also considering new ways to attract audiences. Reducing ticket price is definitely on the table, although he is not too keen with the idea as it would affect payment to cast and crew.

“We need to slowly make ourselves relevant to the public at large. Maybe make a show about the MCO? If we can afford it, maybe do a few free shows so that people can come and watch without the uneasy feeling of spending RM50 to watch a play, ” says Khairi.

“In the short term, small to medium scale venues, of 100 pax and below, may be at the forefront of the local theatre scene in the months to come.

“Early 2021 should hopefully see the return of the large-scale venues, invigorated by their time encouraging and supporting the work of their smaller cousins this year, ” predicts Ling, 46.

“Larger venues may want to consider opening up their venues in new, unconventional ways in this new continuing age of social distancing. Reducing rental rates whilst reducing audience capacities may not make financial sense but it would certainly result in venues being used by a broader cross-section of the performing arts community.

“Also bearing in mind that these changes are only temporal until the new normal is ready to be adopted, ” he adds.

Hasham knows a thing or two about dealing with disasters and silver linings.

“The history of The Actors Studio has given us the strength to continue, ” says Hasham, referring to the flash floods that hit The Actors Studio at Plaza Putra in KL in 2003.

That venue was lost, but The Actors Studio regrouped and moved on to the KLPac venue in 2005.

“We did not, at any time, think of throwing in the towel. We were presented with a devastating challenge (in 2003) and we just had to continue.

“To other groups the only advice we can offer is ‘if you want it and need it badly enough, you will find ways of making it happen’. There is no magic formula. It’s up to you, ” concludes Hasham.  (14 Apr 2020 By DINESH KUMAR MAGANATHAN & TERENCE TOH in The Star)

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Comment by 馬來西亞微電影實驗室 Micro Movie Lab on April 12, 2020 at 5:16pm

疫後振興·綫上教育

UNESCO ICT Prize laureate ThingLink supporting teachers amid the CO...

Helping Romanian teachers create online resources In the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak, classes in Romania have been suspended as of 11 March 2020.

To ensure the continuation of education, the Finnish education technology company ThingLink, laureate of the 2018 UNESCO King Hamad Bin Isa-Al Khalifa Prize for the use of ICT in Education, is collaborating with the educational technology hub AR Studio based in Budapest to help teachers create curriculum aligned resources for online learning.

This includes training educators to create virtual lessons, interactive videos, and other resources that capture teacher’s instructions to students.

The ThingLink software enables teachers to enrich content such as video lessons with text, voice or video notes explaining key concepts and vocabulary or linking to sources and relevant materials.

"We are fully committed to work with AR Studio and support their initiative to quickly equip Romanian teachers with both essential tools and skills for online content creation", says Ulla-Maaria Koivula, the founder and CEO of ThingLink.


For the next months, AR studio is giving free access for teachers to their facilities including free access to the ThingLink software so that teachers can record video lessons to share with their students.

The content created by individual teachers and AR Studio will be freely accessible to teachers in Romania ThingLink Launches 'Donate Lesson' Option to Support Global Teacher Collaboration. ThingLink also announced a new feature allowing teachers to make materials freely accessible for their colleagues and their students around the world.

This new feature, called “Donate lessons”, enables teachers and eLearning account holders on ThingLink to share their images, videos or virtual tours to a free database of curriculum-aligned learning materials. When sharing content, teachers can choose which level and subject their work belongs to, as well as add keywords to help categorize it appropriately.

Each submission will be reviewed by members of the ThingLink community. Once the submission is approved, the author will get an approval notification and Thinglink’s Global Educator badge.

“With the new donate feature, our hope is to bring together the global educator community, and to show how despite – and because of – the circumstances, teachers in different countries keep innovating new ways for connecting and working with their students”, says ThingLink CEO Ulla-Maaria Koivula. The founder of the Finnish education technology company hopes that these innovative practices will carry on after the situation normalizes, “bringing more flexibility for working and studying remotely.” (10/04/2020  UNESCO)


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Comment by 馬來西亞微電影實驗室 Micro Movie Lab on April 11, 2020 at 3:36pm

墨西哥城一處因疫情而空空蕩蕩的購物中心。(聯合國駐墨西哥辦公室圖片/Alexis Aubin)

國際勞工組織《監測報告第二版:2019冠狀病毒病和勞動世界》(英文) 將2019冠狀病毒病描述為“第二次世界大戰以來最嚴重的全球危機”。(國際勞工組織 2020年4月8日 )

所有領域的領導當前的處境,照理應該是“蠟燭兩頭燒”。

一頭是新冠病毒處處藏;一頭是全球危機無方向。

可是,除了極少部分的例外,很多領域的領導卻在“等著看”。

好像疫情一過,整個天空都是燦爛的陽光。

他們可能因為長袖善舞,過去事業做得好墊下基礎,經得起眼下的重重挑戰,談獨善其身綽綽有餘,所以有能力天天在等待機會,讃揚新任政府“開明”、“勤奮”與“迅速”。

但是,不是每一位(其實絕大部分)的生意人,都是那麼人脈暢通。

實際上,在過去兩年早已倦態畢露,現在一邊要提心吊膽自己家人,還有職工與顧客的安危;一邊對於已經火燒眼眉三個月的全球危機,居然絲毫沒有一點頭緒。

民間各生產領域的領導們,誰來給予你的同行會員應有的領導?

當然,也有不讃揚政府,一直很努力在抨擊政府的領導。

除了好聽與不好聽的話,現在真正需要的是行動;最關鍵的是少動嘴,多想法子突圍。

蠟燭兩頭燒,恐怕燒不了多久。何况是全球世紀危機。

Comment by 陳老頭 on April 9, 2020 at 10:55pm

疫後振興·生態文創

面對嚴峻的疫情,我們應當痛定思痛,以提升生態意識為先導,以增強生態情感為紐帶,以倡導生態行為為發端,以維護生態法制為責任,推動生態覺悟和生態素質的進一步提高,為構建人與自然和諧共生的嶄新格局而不懈奮鬥。 

新冠肺炎疫情肆虐著神州大地。這場與買賣、食用野生動物有關的嚴重疫情警醒人們,有必要重新審視人與自然的關係以及人的行為方式,在全社會大力倡導生態文明素質的提高,讓“人與自然和諧共生”的理念成為廣大民眾的自覺行動。

 

莫為浮雲遮望眼:疫情促使生態反思

 

習近平指出:“這次疫情是對中國治理體系和能力的一次大考,我們一定要總結經驗、吸取教訓。”疫情促使我們審視和反思對自然生態的一些深層認識。 

首先,思考人與自然之間的關係。人是自然生態系統的一部分。自然生態構成了人類自身生存與發展的物質基礎和客觀條件,是人的“無機身體”。不論科學技術和現代工業發展到何種程度,自然界始終是人的對象化存在物,人與自然互為存在、和諧相處、共榮共生是人與自然的合理辯證關係。這場疫情無情地告誡人們,一旦人類割裂人與自然的辯證統一關係,做出違背自然發展規律的事情,必然受到自然的懲罰。人類應當牢記:人對自然的傷害最終會傷及人類自身。

 

其次,思考大自然生命共同體。習近平強調,人與自然是生命共同體。以生命共同體闡述人與自然的關係,不僅意味著對生機勃勃大自然的贊許和肯定,也蘊含著對大自然充滿敬畏和熱愛的道德情感。自然界的動物、植物、微生物同其生存的非生命環境(大氣、水、土壤),以及生物群落內部的不同種群連結到一起,形成一個相互聯系、相互作用、相互制約的自然生態系統。這是一個維持著人類賴以生存的生命支持系統。疫情進一步表明,人要想求得生存與發展,就必須承擔起愛護自然、保護自然的生態責任。如果缺失對大自然生命共同體的責任意識和擔當,那麼人類將失去生存與發展的客觀基礎和前提條件。 

再次,思考人類在大自然中的道德地位。人與自然和諧共生的重要論述,蘊含著人與自然生態環境具有同一性。這種同一性意味著,人類道德地對待自然界就是對自身善,否則就是對自身惡。疫情昭示人們:自然界是人本質的對象化。人以善的方式對待自然,就可以確保自身的生存與發展;人以惡的方式對待自然,就一定會殃及人類自身。人類應當懂得:人,絕不能以損害自然生態環境為代價換取自身的幸福。 


最後,反思人類征服與改造自然的能力。隨著科學技術的進步和工業革命的發展,人類改造自然的能力和水平不斷提高,人們認為自己能征服自然、人主宰自然、駕馭自然,可以任由自己達到征服與改造自然的目的。但是,隨著人類活動的擴大,洪水肆虐、物種減少、土地荒漠化、臭氧層空洞……特別是這次異常兇險的疫情,直接威脅著我們的身體健康與生命安全,促使我們不得不重新審視自身改造自然的能力。疫情暴發啟示人們,在改造自然的過程中,必須樹立人與自然和諧共生的理念,遵循自然規律,合理利用自然,否則將嚴重破壞我們賴以生存的地球環境,人類也將受到大自然的嚴厲報復。

 

撥開雲霧見月明:疫情呼喚生態自覺

 

習近平指出:“強化公民環境意識,把建設美麗中國化為人民自覺行動。”作為生態危機的突出表現,新冠肺炎疫情昭示我們,應按照構建人與自然和諧共生現代化建設新格局的要求,喚起生態意識、生態情感、生態行為和生態法制的覺醒,推動形成保護生態環境的自覺。 

提升生態意識。生態意識是反映人與自然環境和諧發展的價值觀念,表現為熱愛自然、保護生態、愛護環境、珍惜資源、尊重生命等。如果人們缺少生態意識的支撐,生態文明觀念淡漠,生態環境惡化的趨勢就不能從根本上得到遏制。可以說,人們缺乏生態意識、特別是缺乏生態責任意識和生態道德意識,是現代生態問題的一個深層次根源。生態責任意識要求人們具有履行生態義務的自律意識和人格素質。人只有樹立生態責任意識,才能明確對自然生命共同體的生態擔當。要讓生態責任意識成為全體民眾共同的價值追求,需要全社會樹立生態道德意識,使正確的生態正義感、生態榮辱感、生態親和感成為全社會共同的價值遵循。此外,還要在全社會倡導關愛自然、善待自然、守護自然、敬畏自然的生態倫理,促使生態意識深入人心。

 

增強生態情感。生態情感是人們對自然生態親近、熱愛、敬畏、依戀等的生理評價和內心體驗。2015年,在蒼山洱海邊,習近平深情地指出:“要像保護眼睛一樣保護生態環境,像對待生命一樣對待生態環境。”這不僅體現出科學發展的自然生態觀,更傳遞出真摯樸實的生態情感,為我們在處理人與自然關係的把握上提供了重要的理論遵循和情感導向。在生態情感的視域下,人類保護自然既出於對自身的考慮,更出於對自然本身的熱愛。生態情感使人類在觀念上“有情化”地看待自然生態,促使人們從根本上熱愛自然、愛護生態、尊重生命,平等地對待地球萬物。這不僅有助於解決當前面臨的生態環境問題,也有助於從根源上解決人與自然關係的危機。現階段,應註重加強生態文明教育、尤其是加強生態情感教育,讓生態文明理念深入讓心,不斷增強人們的生態情感,提高尊重自然、順應自然、保護自然的思想自覺和情感自覺。 

倡導生態行為。生態行為是人們在生產、生活、消費的過程中推動生態文明進步發展的活動。它包括生態生產行為、生態生活行為和生態消費行為。生態生產行為要求在生產中踐行生態責任和生態道德觀念,避免破壞生態環境,對各種自然資源進行高質量的開發和利用,實現人與自然的可持續發展。生態生活行為提倡樹立人與自然共生共榮的綠色思維觀念和行為習慣,以科學、健康、文明、安全的生活方式實現對美好生活的向往和追求。生態消費行為倡導樹立新型的生態消費觀念,倡導可持續發展的適度、綠色、循環的節約式消費行為,反對揮霍鋪張、浮華擺闊的炫耀式消費行為,讓民眾的消費從異化消費走向理性消費。當前,全社會尤其應以這次疫情為戒,視保護珍愛野生動物為榮,視捕殺食用野生動物為恥,杜絕損害生態、破壞環境和浪費資源的不良行為,實現消費行為的生態化。

 

維護生態法制。生態法治是把生態文明建設納入法治化的軌道。生態法治要求公民的有關行為必須以生態法治的規定為底線。作為公民,要強化生態法治意識,增強生態法治觀念,提高生態法治素養,充分認識破壞生態環境的嚴重危害,更好地從源頭上預防和避免危害生態環境行為的發生,以生態法治的“紅線”守住生態文明的“綠線”。全社會要加強生態法制教育,引導廣大民眾樹立生態法制思維,更加有效地利用法律武器解決矛盾糾紛、依法維護自身的合法權益,嚴格約束不文明行為,提高依法保護生態環境的自覺性。 

近代以來,人類活動一直圍繞著如何無止境地向大自然索取更多的能源資源以生產出更多的物質財富、追求更高水準的生活這一主題,而這是不可持續的,也是極為有害的。面對嚴峻的疫情,我們應當痛定思痛,以提升生態意識為先導,以增強生態情感為紐帶,以倡導生態行為為發端,以維護生態法制為責任,推動生態覺悟和生態素質的進一步提高,為構建人與自然和諧共生的嶄新格局而不懈奮鬥。(原題《新冠肺炎疫情呼喚全民生態覺醒》2020年02月27日作者:來源:科技日報 / 本文作者張月昕,系中國農業大學馬克思主義學院講師)



疫後振興:生命哲學

截至北京時間3月20日下午18時30分,新冠肺炎疫情波及六大洲上百個國家和地區,其中88個國家形成本地傳播,累計確診247406例,死亡10225例,治愈89275例。如果從去年12月8日武漢衛健委通報首例病例算起,疫情至今剛過百天。防疫大戰不知何時結束,但它至少已對九大觀念構成沖擊,也將在塵埃落定後影響世界發展。
 

第一是安全觀。新冠肺炎疫情從波及國家數量、人口規模、經濟損失、集體恐慌和各國備戰等因素看,除傷亡人數這個維度外,其軟殺傷堪稱沒有硝煙的“第三次世界大戰”。它既是傳統安全威脅即古代瘟疫流行的現代版復活,又是傳播速度和範圍呈幾何級擴大的非傳統威脅。教科書上對人類安全與威脅的定義將被改寫。


第二是生態觀。新冠肺炎病毒被科學家基本確定為源於蝙蝠攜帶的病毒。這是2003年果子貍傳播病毒引發非典疫情後,人類再次因食物鏈紊亂遭受懲罰。透徹理解生態文明理念,理順生物和諧關系,“敬畏自然”“遠離危險和陌生動植物”等新生態觀將深入人心。 

第三是衛生觀。新冠肺炎疫情快速暴發的原因之一是近距離傳染,包括肢體接觸、呼吸和飛沫二傳。人們將深化“距離產生安全”的認知,接受諸多良好習慣乃至適當移風易俗,如在人口密集場合戴口罩,洗手、消毒、分餐、使用公筷公勺成為衛生剛性需求,遠離不良嗜好與野味,社交場合減少密切擁抱和避免貼面吻面。近日,梵蒂岡教皇謝絕信徒吻手、英國查爾斯王子合十致意、美國副總統彭斯碰肘問候等引發關註,顯示了公眾人物引領安全型社交禮儀的努力。

 

第四是國際觀。新冠肺炎疫情充分檢驗了誰是真正朋友,誰是持久朋友,誰是表面朋友,也見證了誰永遠都難以做朋友。大難臨頭,50多個國家“閉關鎖國”外人莫入;歐盟內部恢復硬邊境,成員國限制出口乃至截留過境防疫物資;各國政府基於內政而向海外僑民敞開家門,流散僑民則因安全感缺失期盼回歸祖國。這些景觀強烈沖擊著人道主義和國際主義觀念,重新強化了國家、主權、民族、邊界、領土等傳統國際法概念。 

第五是治理觀。世界近200個國家形成的多種政治、社會和經濟制度大集市,在此次疫情防範中晾曬出多種方案和模式。有的以人為本,有的優先保經濟保增長;有的隔離城市大區,有的封鎖全部邊境;有的宣布“緊急狀態”,有的進入“戰爭狀態”,有的實行宵禁;有的征用私人物資,有的全民發放現金……實踐證明,治理模式沒有最好只有更好,但是,崇尚科學、理性和專業將成為國家治理的重要考量。

 

第六是生命觀。不同文化、傳統對於生命價值具有不同定義和判斷,也充分體現在新冠肺炎全球戰役中。珍惜每一個生命者有之,大赦天下對犯人法外開恩者有之,以“集體免疫”之名無為而治者有之,苦於資源不足而采取“災難醫學”模式優先救治青壯年者亦有之。後新冠時代,全球範圍內原本就不存在統一標準的生命觀將更加豐富多樣。 

第七是產業觀。世界早已進入產業鏈條無限延長的時代,一臺電腦生產的上下遊鏈條就能串聯起大半個地球,形成不同經濟體和發展階段的產業梯度和分工,構成經濟和貿易全球化的產業鏈、供應鏈和價值鏈。但是,新冠肺炎疫情引發全球性封城、斷路、斷航、閉關、拒簽和物資截留,使這三根鏈條出現動搖而引發產業布局的觀念動搖。這場疫情可能導致世界產業模塊分散化、多元化、便利化,關鍵產品如N95口罩生產再本土化也許會成為趨勢。經濟主權將重新得到確認,流行多年的貿易體系和全球化進程或蒙重挫。

 

第八是財富觀。新冠肺炎疫情聚集多個不祥“動物”行為:蝴蝶效應、黑天鵝降臨、灰犀牛襲來、油老虎清倉、股市牛去熊來……全球經濟增長受影響,世界財富空前縮水,中觀微觀層面的全球運輸業和第三產業遭重創。疫情之後消費觀念勢必大變,保守的儲蓄型消費方式將壓倒開放的借貸型消費。 

第九是教育觀。社會是最佳學校,生活是最佳課堂,親歷是最佳教材。新冠肺炎疫情衍生的各種危機及後果,足以重塑世界、國家、社會和家庭,也足以改變親歷者的三觀四德五心六欲七情。這種改變遠非網絡授課、遠程教育等空間阻隔帶來的方式創新可比,而是對外部世界和人類生存的系統、全新思考與求解。

 

近日,經濟全球化名著《世界是平的》作者托馬斯·弗里德曼提出,今年將是新世界發展分水嶺,去年為“花冠前(BC)”,明年是“花冠後(AC)”。見此評論深感所見略同。世界將變。(原題《新冠肺炎疫情將改變九大觀念》,作者馬曉霖(浙江外國語學院教授)原載:北京青年報 | 2020-03-21)

Comment by 陳老頭 on April 9, 2020 at 9:59pm

After COVID-19:The Technology Story 
COVID-19 and the Malaysian socio-economic balance

In a fourth guest article written exclusively for just-auto, Dato Madani Sahari, the CEO of Malaysia Automotive, Robotics and IoT Institute (MARii), describes the potential impact of COVID-19 on Malaysia and its burgeoning automotive sector.

Malaysia's Movement Control Order (MCO) announced by the Prime Minister, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin last month  has been further extended to April 14, making the MCO a month long ordeal for Malaysians.

In his first month in office, the new prime minister has had to make some tough, yet necessary calls to safeguard the lives of his countrymen, at the same time announcing economic band-aids to quickly mend impacts from the month-long halt to non-essential trade and services.

While there are obvious economic consequences, the hard truth is that there are no ideal solutions for governments around the world that are combating the spread of COVID-19. This pandemic has placed decision makers in an unprecedented tight spot - bite the bullet now and wade through the short terms difficulties, or risk long term consequences of an economy running with an invisible killer at large.

This week, the Malaysian government announced several financial incentives to soften immediate impacts from the MCO, both for individuals and businesses alike. Housing and vehicle loans as well as businesses financing were given automatic opt-in 6 months stay of payment, and those eligible were also allowed early withdrawal of their retirement funds. While the direct benefits are obvious, they also did well to maintain positivity of the populace in such trying times.

Despite some criticisms, it was perhaps the best balance for an economy that depends on stable oil prices and a thriving manufacturing and services sector. With limited resources and increasing pressure to secure the national budget balance, both government and citizens need to chip in to ensure long term impacts are kept at bay.

However, these difficulties has also brought out the true spirit of Malaysians.

On a more positive note, in areas where internet connectivity is accessible, Malaysians have adapted quickly to the sudden restriction in mobility.


Many companies are running business as usual – online meetings, retail, management, and many operations have moved online, taking full advantage of teleconferencing technology provided free of charge by companies such as Google and Zoom during the COVID-19 crisis.


This is much needed good news in which certain sectors have found ways to continue on without much government assistance, allowing valuable resources to be channeled towards those that truly need them in this time of uncertainty.

Perhaps the biggest lesson learned is the need for increased technology adoption, in case a prolonged or repeated outbreak occurs. Hardest hit were manufacturing sector and industries that depend on human on-location presence, such as tourism and events.


While automation or virtual technologies posed possible alternatives to manufacturers and consumers alike, previous social norms dictated lower reception from the market make to these technologies commercially viable.

Opportunity ahead for labour intensive countries

In traditionally labour intensive countries like Malaysia, the coronavirus episode should provide an impetus for the industry to expedite its adoption of automation and new manufacturing technologies. The country has seen the importance of automation through policies such as the National Policy on Industry 4.0 announced last year, and the COVID-19 has emerged as a strong case-study on the required utilisation of connected technologies in all sectors.

Within the automotive sector – the general consensus is that while there are concerns, there is no need to press the panic button just yet. While Europe still struggles with the coronavirus outbreak, China and South Korea have showed signs of control over the spread in their own countries.

In China, Hubei province and Wuhan have begun to lift travel restrictions, a hopeful sign that China has succeeded in flattening the coronavirus curve – in turn signalling business will resume for one of the Asia Pacific's major partner to its automotive sector.

For now, Malaysia's priority is rather obvious. We have seen two actionable outcomes – flatten of the curve just as China and South Korea appear to have done, or delay decisions and further escalate the spread in the footsteps of Italy and Spain.

For the first time – government officials, law enforcement, the private sector, as well as individuals and even their children – are spreading the message to stay at home, while granting their utmost support to health officials in the fulfilling the highest priority, breaking the chain of the coronavirus and returning the economy back to normalcy.

This virus, as scary as it may be, may have just united Malaysia more than ever.

The writer is the chief executive officer of Malaysia Automotive, Robotics and IoT Institute (MARii)

Comment by 馬來西亞微電影實驗室 Micro Movie Lab on April 9, 2020 at 9:00pm

疫後振興: 封城赢家

春節是拉動消費的黃金周。在2019年展望的時候,旅遊、餐飲、零售等行業紛紛表達出美好願景:

美團點評《中國餐飲報告2018》表示2020年中國餐飲規模將突破5萬億元;艾媒咨詢也表示2020春節黃金周零售餐飲銷售額將達到11,034億元;攜程《2020春節“中國人旅遊過年”趨勢預測報告》表示春節長假預計將有4.5億人次出遊……
 

可惜的是,一場疫情讓希望變成了失望。

                       (封城期間的武漢 Photo Credit:FT中文網

中國飯店協會預測,2020春節期間收入(本應)達到七千億元,而中國烹飪協會報告顯示,因疫情造成損失或達5000億元,近八成的餐企在疫情期間營收損失超過100%。
 

2萬多家旅行社,10萬家酒店,1000萬從業者……一夜陷入停頓。同程創始人吳志祥說,旅遊業在春節黃金周里至少損失了1萬億GDP,北京大學旅遊研究與規劃中心主任吳必虎在接受采訪時給出了一個可怕的數字:2020全年旅遊業損失至少3萬億,且當前中小企業的現金流能夠維持3個月以上的,只有14.99%。

 

新冠肺炎會對中國整體產生怎樣的影響,尚無確切數字。但如果換一種方式,以“非典對中國經濟的影響”為關鍵詞進行搜索,且將時間搜索工具定在了2003年1月-12月,就得到了一些片段式的答案: 

食、行、娛樂受到嚴重的影響,航空公司利潤損失15-25%,餐飲業收入減少近40%,金融保險、房地產、教育等行業也都受到不同程度的負面影響……

 

但非典的來襲也給中國發展帶來正面作用,成為一些產業發展的催化因素,這與如今的情況頗為相似。 

2003年,人們對電話通訊意識加強,春節7天運營商短信收入超8億元,是平時短信業務量的2-3倍;這一年,中國網絡行業全線飄紅,京東商城、淘寶網、騰訊網等誕生,網絡經濟開始走上新一輪征程;在特殊形勢下,用戶上網的地點也開始從網吧、網咖向自家房間轉移。

 

同時,“非典”疫情推動中國醫療衛生和制造行業的發展,尤其是中藥制造業帶來新的商機,也為網絡教育的發展提供了前所未有的發展契機等。 

由於新冠肺炎的出現,哪些互聯網公司迎來了新發展機遇?疫情又催化了怎樣的風口故事?這個市場仍然熱鬧,也許並沒有我們想象的悲傷。 


娛樂最受C端關注
 

2020年1月23日淩晨,武漢發佈封城公告,全民“宅家”。但與非典時期不同的是,當年的主要娛樂源泉是電視和相互發短信。 

而現在,手機已經是“身體器官”的一部分,集社交、辦公、教育、娛樂等多個屬性功能於一身。有人開玩笑,在“禁足”的一個月里身體哪哪都好,就是有點費眼睛。 

按照不同時間節點,我們參考了七麥數據IOS APP排名的變化情況。 

1月17日春運高峰,IOS APP排名前十的品牌里娛樂性比較足。除夕當天,紅包大戰在各個平臺拉開帷幕,央視春晚獨家合作夥伴快手,以及騰訊微視、抖音、西瓜視頻等平臺均推出“撒幣”獲流大戰,app排名急劇上升。 

武漢雷神山火神山建設直播,央視頻APP在2月初穩居前三,吸引超5000萬人雲監工。隨後部分企業開工,各種雲端辦公軟件接受“洗禮”,釘釘、騰訊會議、企業微信等遠程辦公品牌擠進前列。

 

億歐:2020年不同時間節點IOS APP排名情況 

睡眠不夠,視頻來湊。短視頻與直播盛行,巨頭之戰如火如荼。春節前夕微信視頻號現身內測,疫情期間問世,騰訊微視視頻紅包兇猛來襲;《囧媽》初次挑戰短視頻平臺獨播,抖音、西瓜視頻再創戰績。 

Quest Mobile報告顯示,2019年短視頻用戶規模已超8.2億,而2016年抖音成立時,短視頻獨立運行的APP用戶不到2億。碎片化內容消費時代,短視頻成為行業探索的主流方向,通過APP監測數據來看,頭部企業格局也基本確定。

 

億歐:2020年春節假期期間 短視頻APP行業 TOP5人均單日使用時長 

在線辦公:巨頭的遊戲 

在線辦公,花樣百出。國務院將春節假期延長至2月2日,企業復工普遍推遲到17日以後,異地隔離14天的“社畜”們,開啟了漫長的在線辦公旅程。 

疫情之下,一批在線辦公軟件免費開放辦公服務,解決多人內容共享、信息共享,多人會議等簡單辦公需求。也有不少企業自我內測,音視頻、文檔存儲、雲儲存、多方協作等實用性,篩選符合公司氣質的辦公產品,億歐智庫也做了《在線辦公,孰能稱王》的測評系列文章。

 

撇開疫情,在線辦公最常用的就是雲視頻工具,據IDC2018年的預測數據,2019年中國以雲視頻會議為主的軟件視頻會議市場規模為2.18億美元,CR6市占率低於50%,市場仍處於一片藍海。 

億歐數據顯示,在2月3日在線辦公開啟當天,IOS APP排名里,釘釘、騰訊會議、企業微信排在前十,越往後,釘釘、騰訊會議、企業微信更為穩定的出現在前三名,其中釘釘連續霸榜14天(七麥數據,截至2月18日)。

 

在線教育:疫情期間最大產業亮點 

開學延長,網課照常。雖然在IOS總表中,在線教育未能擠進前列,但依然可以看到數據明顯上升的趨勢。 

億歐數據顯示,截至2020年2月12日,小米手機APP下載量排行榜里,猿輔導作為在線教育的品牌已經躥升到第20位,超過愛奇藝、酷我音樂、小紅書等。作業幫則排到了35位。

 

在手機型號為小米的APP下載量TOP100品牌中,總共有16家在線教育品牌入圍。角逐出來的TOP5品牌分別為猿輔導、作業幫、學而思網校、作業幫直播課、一起小學學生。 

對多數人而言,疫情期間宅在家,視頻、遊戲、小說是最解悶的選擇,占了消費者相當多的屏幕使用時間。

寫在最後 

亞洲開發銀行在報告《2003年亞洲發展展望》的中國篇中表示,受“非典”等多種因素的影響,中國經濟在2003至2004年的增長率會略有放慢,但仍將保持較快的增長。非典對中國經濟的沖擊是短期的、局部的,而對全年增長並沒有產生轉折性的影響。 

2003年,中國網絡業剛剛開始。17年後,中國已經有了8.85億網民,互聯網普及率已經達到了61.2%(截至2019年6月),互聯網用戶存量已經形成,如今企業們正在根據用戶的需求,提供各類專業化服務。

 

雲上辦公、在線教育、生鮮電商的發展解決了就業、教學、生活等問題,大數據、雲計算、人工智能讓企業、行業、社會運轉的效率更高。移動互聯網和人工智能時代所帶來的更多可能性,是中國崛起最好的證明。這一切,都沒有因疫病的出現而改變。(本文作者:賈萌‘原題《疫情之下,數據解析移動 APP 的春天》2020-02-26 )

Comment by Khalak Khalayak on April 8, 2020 at 11:25pm

疫後振興:前景預測

新冠肺炎疫情給全國旅遊業按下了“暫停鍵”。作為受影響最大的行業之一,旅遊業恢復元氣需要多久?如何在疫情結束後走上更為健康的發展道路?南方日報記者采訪了長江學者、中山大學教授保繼剛。
 

保繼剛認為,新冠肺炎疫情對旅遊業的影響超過了“非典”,但是阻擋不住旅遊業發展的步伐,這是業界的共識。保繼剛認為,要重新認識旅遊業的脆弱性,反思當前投資過重的方式,同時,把如何促進旅遊產業恢復活力的重點放在提供更好的公共管理服務上。

 

談旅遊業恢復

短程旅遊先恢復

出境遊受影響大

 

南方日報:2003年“非典”疫情過後,旅遊產業長期保持了兩位數的增長,在您看來,本次新冠肺炎疫情過後,旅遊產業是否還能夠繼續保持高位增長?旅遊產業的基本面是否會發生變化? 

保繼剛:春節是傳統的旅遊旺季,洶湧而來的新冠肺炎導致了旅遊活動完全停滯,在春節期間,疫情對旅遊業的影響已經超過2003年“非典”。但從歷史上歷次“災難”後的情況來看,旅遊業都沒有消亡,不僅沒有消亡,在全球的經濟比重中占比越來越大。我們可以得出一個結論,旅遊是一個朝陽產業,一時的危機阻擋不了旅遊業的發展,這也是業界應該取得的共識。 


在不考慮其它因素下,如果疫情在上半年結束,我們可以粗略地作出以下判斷:從我國經濟發展所處的周期以及旅遊市場自然發展規律來看,2020年下半年國內旅遊會恢復增長,到2021年下半年恢復甚至超過2019年同期規模水平,我認為,旅遊業的恢復時間大體需要1年左右。
 

從旅遊業恢復的角度判斷,國內旅遊特別是短程旅遊先恢復,出境旅遊恢復需要一定的時間,出境旅遊還可能受到我國外匯收入的影響,與其呈正相關,入境旅遊的恢復可能需要更長時間。與此同時,度假旅遊、自然康養旅遊將會有一個大的增長;城市旅遊消費會更加活躍;都市周邊的鄉村旅遊會有大幅度的增長;自然地理尺度大的地區和疫情不嚴重的地區,旅遊會有較大的恢復;團隊旅遊特別是長線團隊旅遊恢復尚需時日,散客特別以自駕為主的家庭出遊方式會有一個大的恢復,長線的旅遊包車、旅遊專列恢復將較為緩慢。

 

談疫情後市場

“報復性增長”看怎麽比

不應人云亦云

 

南方日報:有人認為,新冠肺炎疫情導致全國旅遊業損失較大,您怎麽看待?

保繼剛:對於國內的影響來說,我認為目前有一些專家的估算是偏高的。他們根據2019年全國旅遊收入的總量是6.5萬億人民幣來計算,而問題在於,6.5萬億又是怎麽算出來的呢?另一個是根據攜程公布的數據,攜程發布了一個消息:預計2020年春節期間全國會有4.5億人次出行,旅遊業收益不低於5500億。但是在這4.5億人次中,有相當一部分的人是回鄉,雖然都在“流動”,但是否也算旅遊呢?

 

南方日報:很多媒體和智庫都預測,疫情過後旅遊消費市場大概率會出現2003年“非典”過後的報復性增長,您怎麽看? 

保繼剛:會不會出現所謂“報復性增長”,要看以哪個階段的指標做參照,跟現在相比還是和去年同階段指標相比。跟現在比,它一定是報復性增長,因為現在是零。但是若你說跟去年相比,那就不一定,而且兩位數的增長就算是報復性增長嗎?我們應該更加實事求是地對待統計數據,來認識旅遊業。各大旅遊研究智庫也應該實事求是地做好深入調研,而不是人雲亦雲或者采用嘩眾取寵的說法。提出一些切實可行的措施,這才是我們智庫應該做的事。

 

談數據統計

當前眾多數據疊加

建議引入地理尺度統計

 

南方日報:如果說上述對旅遊業的損失預測是不科學的,我們應當怎樣科學地了解統計數據? 

保繼剛:疫情後,我們應當借這次旅遊業“歸零”的機會,把統計數字的泡沫擠掉,實事求是地認識旅遊業,引入地理尺度來進行統計,即按省、市、縣三級地理尺度來進行遊客統計。當前的弊端是把眾多數據疊加在一起,一位湖南遊客到了廣州、佛山、珠海,三地都將他算到遊客數量里,最後匯總遊客量,1個人變成了3個人,這將會產生疊加效應,從而導致數據與現實不符。引入地理尺度後,根據軌跡來統計外省到廣東的人數,我們可以更加準確地計算出外省遊客的數據。

數據也可能是泡沫。以學生為例,中山大學旅遊學院一年級本科生中,80%的人有超過兩個手機號碼,家鄉一個讀書地一個,這樣的雙卡雙待,使得用電訊數據來計算的遊客數量變相增加。另外乘高鐵和高速公路自駕的人,比如從廣州到昆明,途徑廣西和貴州被記錄為廣西和貴州遊客,但實際上並沒有在廣西和貴州進行消費。以春節為例,返鄉人員被統計在遊客數量中,但是其住宿和餐飲的消費會比正常的旅遊者要低。因此,疫情之後對於旅遊的研究以及決策來講,我們有機會從零開始,得到一個更加科學準確的數據。


南方日報:很多人都說旅遊是朝陽產業,但又是很脆弱的產業,我們應當如何認識旅遊業的脆弱性?

保繼剛:旅遊行業有它非常脆弱的一面,任何突發事件對旅遊業的影響非常直接且嚴重,行業風險很高。旅遊產品不能儲存,不像汽車或者糧食,今天賣不了可明天賣,一個地方賣不了換個地方賣,這就是旅遊業與其它行業相比脆弱的地方。因此,旅遊需求是敏感的,旅遊行業是脆弱的,但是行業脆弱不等於沒有生命力,不等於沒有未來發展的潛力。

 

談旅遊投資

投資大周期長風險就大

應該借此機會反思

 

南方日報:近年來,旅遊業呈現出投資大、周期長的特點,但是脆弱性使得旅遊企業的風險過高,我們應當怎樣看待這一問題?

保繼剛:在談脆弱性的同時,學界最近談的比較多的是恢復力,也就是旅遊地或產品在遭到危機之後的恢復能力。實際上,我們以往常說的旅遊業特征——投資少、見效快、成本低,恰好與現在相反。在旅遊發展的初級階段,實際上呈現了共享經濟特征。以陽朔為例,旅遊業開始是用自家的門面賣啤酒和美食,騰空兩個房間做住宿,這就是投資少。後來經濟發展好了,追求五星級酒店甚至是國際品牌的酒店,變成了投資大,周期長,這樣一來,風險就大了,我們應該借此機會反思。

因此,在對脆弱性和恢復能力的認知下,我們應該考慮旅遊企業的不同方式的承受能力是不一樣的。比如現在的民宿越來越高端化,在面對疫情的時候,它的脆弱性就表現出來了。我們是不是更多要考慮最早提出來的旅遊業投資少、見效快、效益高的靈活模式,也就是說,我們從學術上回到那種替代性發展、包容性發展思路上,而不一味地去追求投資額有多大?


南方日報:在您看來,疫情過後,各級文化和旅遊部門更應該從哪些方面激發需求側市場,助力旅遊業恢復產業活力?

保繼剛:去年國家提上議事日程的“消費稅立法”,估計會盡快通過並實施,這會激發地方政府重視旅遊業發展,因為旅遊消費可以直接體現在地方稅收。因此政府最重要的還是在控制好疫情之後,提供更好的公共管理服務,旅遊的需求始終是存在的。同時,從產業的發展來看,要調整旅遊供給體系建設的基本思路,以“+旅遊”而不是“旅遊+”的方式推進旅遊供給體系的建設。(原題《專家預測:旅遊業恢復需要1年左右》2020年03月04日 來源:南方日報 記者 蔡華鋒 實習生 何芷珺)

Comment by Khalak Khalayak on April 8, 2020 at 11:09pm

疫後振興:“危”與“機”

文旅產業是世界最大的產業,其GDP增加值和就業人口都占到大約全球各自領域10%左右的規模。以旅遊業為例,中國當前旅遊業對GDP的貢獻已經達到了11%,直接和間接從業者超過1億人。但是,文旅產業又是人群聚集性產業,極易受到突發事件的強烈沖擊。毋庸置疑,2020年春節的冠狀病毒疫情對中國文旅產業造成了巨大影響。

 

01 疫情給文旅產業帶來沖擊

 

文旅作為全球最大的人群聚集型產業,包括交通旅行、遊覽遊樂、演藝、餐飲、旅居、購物等等活動,都是以人群集聚甚至大規模集聚的形態呈現,具有高敏感性的特點。同時,文旅產業的產業鏈很長,根據《國家旅遊及相關產業統計分類(2018)》分類,包括指直接為遊客提供出行、住宿、餐飲、遊覽、購物、娛樂等服務活動的集合以及為遊客出行提供旅遊輔助服務和政府旅遊管理服務等活動的集合,涉及200多個行業。 

正是由於文旅產業聚集型、鏈條長的特性,遭遇突發疫情就導致出現階段性、斷崖式的大幅度、大面積急速下滑。據有關機構初步測算,預計新冠疫情下全年旅遊業總收入約7萬余億元,疫情造成的損失額度約相當於疫情前預測總值的22%至25%,損失額度約在1.6萬億元至1.8萬億元之間,導致全年預期從同比增長10%變為負增長14%至18%。 

但是,我們也應看到文旅行業雖然具有高敏感性,但是也具有非凡的韌性。梳理一下,中國旅遊發展40年以來,已經歷了三次重大危機,分別是1989年、2003年和2020年。1989年的旅遊行業恢復期為一年半,2003年實際上的恢復期是半年。據專家推測,疫情結束後3-5個月,旅遊行業將逐步恢復,而這期間正是文旅行業調整改革的好時機。

 

02 疫情下文旅產業的發展轉機

 

疫情是一次沖擊,是一場考驗,也是一次加快調整的機遇,有助於加快推動文旅融合發展,有助於促進數字文旅高質量發展,加快旅遊業的配套改革。具體來說,主要有以下幾個方面的轉機。

 

一是推動數字文旅高質量發展,智慧化管理、數字化產品、在線化營銷、大數據營銷方式加速成型,數字經濟格局下的文旅融合成為新的行業命題。 

依托數字技術,浙江在疫情阻擊戰中利用“大數據+網格化”的方法研判疫情,下好了“先手棋”;而杭州率先推出的一圖(疫情圖)一碼(健康碼)一指數(精密智控)較好實現了疫情管控,成為全國疫情防控的樣本。同時依托“詩畫浙江·文旅資訊”等融媒體平臺線上平臺,推出了全省55個5A、4A級景區的720°全景VR資源。

 

二是提升文化旅遊發展環境和品質。疫情之後,要求更清潔、衛生的旅遊環境,更高效的公共事件應急處理能力,更高品質的文化旅遊產品,更文明的文化旅遊參與,有利於全面提升旅遊行業的衛生質量和管理水平。如旅行社數據資料建檔和管理更規範,旅遊接待車輛的清潔衛生更有保障;飯店將強化對客房、餐廳、廚房、公共娛樂區域的衛生要求,建立更加嚴格的清潔制度,建立客戶資料等;景區的清潔衛生工作,景區的配套醫療服務等;旅遊車船的清潔、消毒等制度建設。 

同時,還將推動鄉村公共基礎設施、環境衛生、公共安全、衛生保障等方面的建設,有利於鄉村振興和旅遊發展。

 

三是建設現代文化旅遊治理體系與治理能力。在此次疫情中,普遍暴露出了文旅產業內部存在的體系化、制度化的應急措施不足問題。未來勢必將加強現代文化旅遊治理體系建設,完善黨委領導、政府負責、民主協商、社會協同、公眾參與、法治保障、科技支撐的社會治理體系。增強國家與地方的協調互動機制,增強文旅產業與其他產業之間的協調互助機制。 

堅持政府主導力、企業主體力、市場配置力“三力合一”,進一步創新政府管理體制,發揮政府主導作用,是推進文化旅遊發展的重要支撐。政府利用行政手段推動各種資源的有效整合,著力在制定規劃、完善政策、市場準入、加強監管、優化環境、宣傳促銷、提供服務、人才培養與引進等方面發揮主導、引導作用。同時,進一步充分發揮企業的主體作用,市場配置力和競爭機制,推進旅遊產業化、經營市場化和管理社會化。人人既是文旅產業的創造者、生產者又是消費者和評判者。

 

四是重塑文旅產業的運營模式和商業邏輯。互聯網的快速發展形成了新的商業邏輯,萌發了新的經濟形態,催生了新的“物種”。超級個人IP、超級雲(雲辦公、雲學習、雲購物、雲娛樂)、超級機器(無人機、無人零售、無人駕駛)、超級計算(雲計算、霧計算)、超級組織(如共享員工)、超級管道、超級信用等等“新物種”將重塑文旅產業的商業邏輯。 

恒大利用VR網上售房3天達580億元,李子柒短視頻風靡全球,李佳琦去年的收入,超過了中國60%的上市公司(2307家)的年凈利潤;網紅辛有誌在這次疫情中捐了1.5億。近日,“雲蹦迪”在抖音、快手、B站等平臺流量暴增。來自北京、青島、長沙、蘇州、成都、重慶等一二線城市的眾多頭部夜店紛紛入駐,進行“雲蹦迪”直播。網友熱議,人生第一次OT轉場TAXX只需要2秒。其中,有頭部夜店開播26分鐘圈粉30萬,同時在線人數超過10萬+,總觀眾超過231萬,點贊達到了300多萬。

 

五是創新融合成為未來的發展出路。新技術重塑了文化旅遊業運行模式,以人工智能、虛擬現實、物聯網為基礎支撐,實施“文化+”、“旅遊+”戰略,推動文化、旅遊及相關產業融合發展,不斷培育新業態。 

創新必須以人為中心,做好產品,做優服務。從需求端來看,文旅消費體驗趨向分層化、復合化、散客化、個性化等方向轉變,對應的企業也應提供精細化、多元化、專業化的產品和服務。 

融合既是“文化+科技+旅遊”的融合,也是政府與企業的融合。促進數字文化內容與互聯網旅遊、智慧旅遊、虛擬旅遊等新模式聯動發展,離不開政府在智慧城市建設方面的設施和技術支持,特色文化旅遊產品打造也有賴於地方文化資源稟賦的保護、利用和創新。加快推進地方智慧城市建設,將有助於智慧旅遊產業發展。要抓住“智慧城市”建設的大好時機,為億萬遊客提供優質的“智慧服務”,全面提升地方文化旅遊品質。

 

03 疫情之後文旅產業發展應對之策 

凡事預則立,不預則廢。面對突發的疫情,需要不斷總結經驗教訓,無論是政府還是企業都要積極應變,采取有效的應對措施化“危”為“機”。

 

政府方面:

一是出臺相應的扶持政策。從金融支持、穩定職工隊伍、減輕企業負擔等方面出臺具體有效的政策,首要解決企業面臨生存問題,化解職工工資、流動資金、企業債務等資金危機。當前文化旅遊部和各地政府已出臺一系列政策,比如說上海出了28條,嘉定區出了12條,蘇州16條,廣東20條,四川13條、浙江17條等等。應盡快將減免稅、減免房租、降低或者緩繳社會保險費、低息貸款、實施失業保險費返還、與職工協商調整薪酬和輪崗輪休等政策執行到位。 

二是補足短板,消除負面影響。構建應對突發事件的現代旅遊治理體系。總結此次應對疫情中存在的漏洞和問題,不斷提升文化旅遊治理水平。建立由政府統籌、多方共建,文旅和衛生部門聯動監控,文旅企業聯防聯控管理,居民和遊客監督,智庫及媒體參與的治理體系,努力消除疫情帶來的負面影響。 

三是提振信心,助推市場復蘇。鼓勵旅遊消費要從激勵和調節流量兩個方面出發,通過政府補貼、強制安排旅遊休閑時間等項措施,將潛在的市場需求轉化成現實的市場需求,促使旅遊市場在短時期內復蘇振興。地方政府應盡早謀劃,制定旅遊振興計劃,積極考慮編制促進夏季或秋季旅遊業的振興計劃。建立文旅產業扶持專項基金,加大旅遊企業財稅激勵、減免政策,加快文旅基礎設施建設,穩定從業人員隊伍。精心策劃旅遊復蘇活動,推出“高鐵+門票”“旅遊券”、餐館、旅店、零售店打折等一系列促銷活動等。鼓勵親近戶外大自然的旅遊活動,開展自駕車遊、戶外營地遊、研學旅遊等。 

2003年“非典”過後,“江蘇旅遊首遊式”在無錫靈山景區舉行使靈山一炮走紅。當前杭州、麗水等地旅遊景區已搶先開放,旅遊營銷也同步推開。積極策劃疫後首遊等活動,將為後期爭取旅遊市場份額打好基礎。

 

四是修煉內功,重塑城市形象。完善公共旅遊安全規劃,出臺應急預案,提升旅遊環境的衛生水平和文旅行業應急處置能力。抓住全域旅遊、文旅融合、鄉村振興、文化復興等重大政策紅利,按照將整個城市打造成巨型文旅產品的理念,不斷提升城市的規劃、建設、管理、經營、治理水平,重塑城市旅遊安全目的地形象。考慮到海外旅遊市場復蘇的周期相對較長,建議近期重點集中在開拓國內市場,從近郊遊、自駕遊、親子遊、家庭遊、綠色生態遊、康養旅遊等入手,推出一批安心、舒心、放心、綠色、生態、健康的旅遊產品,由內到外穩定人心,帶動消費。同時積極加強對外宣傳和營銷,爭取世界旅遊組織、世界銀行、世界衛生組織等國際組織支持,加快區域旅遊合作,開展一系列新的重大的營銷行動,增加對外的營銷經費,增強旅遊吸引力。 

對於企業來說,最重要的是活下去,修煉內功、蓄積力量。一方面開源節流,及時止損,重構自身的成本能力,縮減費用、剝離不良業務、杜絕虧損及沒有質量的增長,確保現金流,增強抗風險能力;另一方面,重新謀篇布局,積極完善和優化企業管理制度,加強市場和營銷的研究,強化科技的應用,加強研發升級更具市場競爭力的旅遊產品,以迎接疫情之後的報復性消費反彈。

 

2003年的非典時期,攜程通過激勵士氣、堅持不裁員、降低運營成本、人員輪崗、開拓新的業務來源、堅持戰鬥在一線、苦練內功、強化培訓等舉措,不但提升了內部運作效率,提高了員工綜合素質,而且還通過非典戰役的洗禮,發掘、培養、提拔了一批業務骨幹,為後來攜程的騰飛打下了堅實的基礎。 

“風暴之後會更好!”在危機中,誰率先做好準備,誰便在疫情結束後最先迎來機遇。相信戰“疫”很快會打贏,冰雪融化之後,文旅產業也將迎來春的明媚。

 

【參考文獻】 

1.王國平,旅遊城市與城市旅遊,研究通報,第3期。

2.石培華等.“非典”後的旅遊經濟重建與風險管理[J].旅遊學刊,2003(4)

3.馬麗君、孫根年,30年來危機事件對中國旅遊業發展的影響及比較,經濟地理,2009.6

4.魏小安,旅遊業:嚴冬過後是陽春,中新經緯客戶端

5.洪清華:預計“疫”後恢復期三個月,文旅企業要抓住危中的“機”,搜狐網

6.水木然,疫情之後,正在催生8大超級物種!

(2020-03-10 來源:互聯網)

愛墾網 是文化創意人的窩;自2009年7月以來,一直在挺文化創意人和他們的創作、珍藏。As home to the cultural creative community, iconada.tv supports creators since July, 2009.

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